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The Flaw of Averages: Why Ignoring Uncertainties Causes Projects to be Behind Schedule, Beyond Budget and Below Projection

A workshop by Sam Savage
Executive Director , ProbabilityManagement.org

14 October 2019, 11:30 AM

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Topics covered by this workshop

Sam is giving away the following

Free SIPmath Enterprise Tools for Windows. With the Enterprise version of the SIPmath Modeler Tools, you can easily create dynamic simulation models that can run in Microsoft Excel without any macros or add-ins. Create new models or make your existing deterministic model robust to reflect uncertainty. The Enterprise version includes one hour of technical support. To learn more, visit https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/enterprise.

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About this workshop

Sam Savage, Executive Director of ProbabilityManagement.org, author of the Flaw of Averages - Why we Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty, Adjunct Professor in Stanford University's School of Engineering and a Fellow of the Judge Business School at Cambridge University, will demonstrate how ignoring uncertainty in business plans and investment proposals leads to bad decision making. This powerful workshop will explain how businesses all over the world can improve performance by moving from averages to an unambiguous expression of uncertainty called a SIP.

The Flaw of Averages is a set of systematic errors that occur when uncertainties are represented by single average numbers. Sam will show how free SIPmath cures the Flaw of Averages by replacing single numbers in calculations with arrays of thousands of numbers. This lets you calculate the chances of achieving your goals in native Excel, R, Python or you favourite analytical platform.

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Free SIPmath Modeler Tools

Get a free copy of the standard SIPmath Modeler Tools to leverage the native Excel Data Table function to bring interactive Monte Carlo simulation to all Excel users. The models built with these tools do not require the tools to run in Excel. Once you build the model, any excel (including web and android) can open the files and run the simulations.

Please note, you need to register as an attendee before you can access this freebie.

Sam Savage

Sam L. Savage is Executive Director of ProbabilityManagement.org, a nonprofit devoted to the communication and calculation of uncertainty. He is the inventor of the SIP (Stochastic Information Packet), a data structure that lets simulations communicate with each other, and initiated the open SIPmath standard. He is joined on the board by Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics, and Michele Hyndman, former public relations manager for the Stanford School of Medicine Blood Center. Sam is also author of The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty, and is an Adjunct Professor at Stanford University.

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