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The Arithmetic of Uncertainty

A workshop by Sam Savage
Executive Director, ProbabilityManagement.org

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Topics covered by this workshop

Sam is giving away the following

Free SIPmath Enterprise Tools for Windows. With the Enterprise version of the SIPmath Modeler Tools, you can easily create dynamic simulation models that can run in Microsoft Excel without any macros or add-ins. Create new models or make your existing deterministic model robust to reflect uncertainty. The Enterprise version includes one hour of technical support. To learn more, visit https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/enterprise.

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About this workshop

Imagine the accountant who says "I don't need to know arithmetic because I have accounting software." Risk management is based on principles involving the arithmetic of uncertainty, which is governed by only a few additional rules beyond normal arithmetic. The free tools at ProbabilityManagement.org allow you to do the arithmetic of uncertainty in native Excel.

The Five Mindles of Uncertainty Risk vs. Uncertainty reminder Visualizing uncertainty Combining uncertainties (Diversification) Flaw of Averages (Strong Form) Interrelated Uncertainties SIPmath Tools

Free SIPmath Modeler Tools

Get a free copy of the standard SIPmath Modeler Tools to leverage the native Excel Data Table function to bring interactive Monte Carlo simulation to all Excel users. The models built with these tools do not require the tools to run in Excel. Once you build the model, any excel (including web and android) can open the files and run the simulations.

Please note, you need to register as an attendee before you can access this freebie.

Sam Savage

Sam L. Savage is Executive Director of ProbabilityManagement.org, a nonprofit devoted to the communication and calculation of uncertainty. He is the inventor of the SIP (Stochastic Information Packet), a data structure that lets simulations communicate with each other, and initiated the open SIPmath standard. He is joined on the board by Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics, and Michele Hyndman, former public relations manager for the Stanford School of Medicine Blood Center. Sam is also author of The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty, and is an Adjunct Professor at Stanford University.

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