The Arithmetic of Uncertainty

Imagine the accountant who says "I don't need to know arithmetic because I have accounting software." Risk management is based on principles involving the arithmetic of uncertainty, which is governed by only a few additional rules beyond normal arithmetic. The free tools at allow you to do the arithmetic of uncertainty in native Excel.

The Five Mindles of Uncertainty Risk vs. Uncertainty reminder Visualizing uncertainty Combining uncertainties (Diversification) Flaw of Averages (Strong Form) Interrelated Uncertainties SIPmath Tools

Exclusive Offers

Register for this Workshop to unlock these exclusive offers.

Free SIPmath Modeler Tools


About The Speakers

Sam Savage

Sam Savage

Executive Director,

Sam L. Savage is Executive Director of, a nonprofit devoted to the communication and calculation of uncertainty. He is the inventor of the SIP (Stochastic Information Packet), a data structure that lets simulations communicate with each other, and initiated the open SIPmath standard. He is joined on the board by Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics, and Michele Hyndman, former public relations manager for the Stanford School of Medicine Blood Center. Sam is also author of The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty, and is an Adjunct Professor at Stanford University.