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Mapping in action: A worked example of causal mapping applied to generate a quantitative uncertainty model in oil and gas exploration

A workshop by Graeme Keith
Owner & CEO, Stochastic ApS

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About this workshop

Many strategic investment decisions are portfolio decisions: of all the investment options available to us, how do we make a selection that ensures a creditable return on our investment without exposing us to undue risk. Quantitative uncertainty models allow us to address these questions directly: how to different selections perform probabilistically? Which selection gives us the greatest probability of making our targets; which gives us the greatest expected return; is the exposure in our portfolio warranted by the potential return?

This presentation shows how causal mapping leads directly to such quantitative models.

Graeme Keith

Advisor, facilitator, teacher and speaker Strategy, risk management, portfolio analysis and decision analysis Expert in quantification, modelling of uncertainty and stochastic optimization

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