Mapping in action: A worked example of causal mapping applied to generate a quantitative uncertainty model in oil and gas exploration

Many strategic investment decisions are portfolio decisions: of all the investment options available to us, how do we make a selection that ensures a creditable return on our investment without exposing us to undue risk. Quantitative uncertainty models allow us to address these questions directly: how to different selections perform probabilistically? Which selection gives us the greatest probability of making our targets; which gives us the greatest expected return; is the exposure in our portfolio warranted by the potential return?

This presentation shows how causal mapping leads directly to such quantitative models.

About The Speakers

Graeme Keith

Graeme Keith

Owner & CEO, Stochastic ApS

Advisor, facilitator, teacher and speaker Strategy, risk management, portfolio analysis and decision analysis Expert in quantification, modelling of uncertainty and stochastic optimization